Why Voting Is Important

Voting is one of the most important things that can be done as an American. Voting gives people the right to voice their opinion on pending laws, ordinances, and who they want to be in local and state officials. It also will let people decide who will be the leaders of our country. Voting makes it impossible for someone or one party to stay in office longer than the legal amount of time. Voting gives people the power so there cannot be laws passed without them having a say on it.If a law is being voted on the members of the community, which it will be affecting will have a chance to vote on it. Some elections are won by a very small margins and it could have gone in the other direction if everyone that was eligible to vote, would register and actually go out and vote. People who do not vote, others decide what is good for the way that they will living our lives. Voting decides how American is going to be run and everyone’s voice will be heard.Voting is part of being an America n, and everyone should take advantage of it. Voting is important because it exercises our right to vote as an American citizen to express our issues and ideas. Voting is the most powerful way to express your ideas and opinions. If you didn’t vote you would never be able to argue your opinion on such things as abortion, gas prices, tax dollars, or more better paying jobs. Voting exercises your right as an American citizen to express your issues and opinions.The leaders of our country have always been chosen through the presidential election since the beginning of constitution and by laws. Voting helps decide who will run our nation for the next term. Without voting our country would be ran by monarchy or dictatorship. Voting to decide who will run our country for the next four years is more than important to our survival as a nation of strong free people. Voting makes the difference from being lead by someone we chose as the people than by someone who took charge without the p eoples consent or by their bloodline.

Religious or moral issue of concern to Christians Essay

Analyse and explain the way in which a religious or moral issue of concern to Christians has been dealt with in a television soap opera The moral issue that I have chosen to follow is adultery, which is when a married person has voluntary sexual intercourse with other married or not married people, rather than his or her spouse. The reason I have chosen this moral issue is because it is part of everyday life, many people are doing it and are not taking notice of the hurt and pain they are causing. I have chosen Eastenders for my soap opera, because it is a popular soap and the moral issue adultery is shown, through Natalie and Ricky’s affair. Christians have a strong view on adultery, they believe that you should keep sexual intercourse for marriage because it makes it part of a religious or spiritual contact and it makes it dependant on a commitment to spend the rest of your life with someone, also â€Å"Do not commit adultery† is one of the ten commandments, so Christians are totally against adultery. The main characters involved were Ricky, Natalie, Pat and Barry. The storyline begins with, Ricky and his son Liam coming back to the square after a few years away. After a few weeks Ricky is starting to settle down and he is renting a flat with Sam Mitchell his ex-wife, Natalie and Ricky are friends at this point. After a while Natalie realizes she still loves Ricky, her first love, and starts meeting up with him secretly and has sexual intercourse with him. Natalie makes up excuses saying that she’s working overtime and during her lunch breaks when she’s really meeting up with Ricky. One night Pat sees Ricky picking up Natalie from round the corner from their house. The next morning Pat confronts Natalie about what she saw and tells her to end it but Natalie starts crying and says that she still loves Ricky, but Pat tells Natalie about her own love life and that she would be making a big mistake by seeing Ricky. Natalie is still confused and not sure whom she wants to be with. On Ricky’s birthday Natalie stays home and looks after Jack and Liam, Ricky’s son. So Barry, Pat and Roy can go to Ricky’s party soon after they arrive Barry persuades Roy and Pat to go home and baby-sit so Natalie can come to the party. When Natalie arrives she gives Ricky his card and on the back of the envelope Natalie wrote meet me outside the back where she tells him that she is going to leave Barry. Pat and Natalie talk again and Pat shows Natalie the secret tape, which Barry has recorded for Natalie’s birthday it is a really special tape because Barry says how much he loves her, how important she is to him and how happy she makes him feel, after seeing the video Natalie realises that she is doing wrong and tells Ricky it’s over. Natalie realises she can’t forget Ricky and soon their affair is back on and they plan to move away from the square and start afresh. They plan to leave on Natalie’s birthday, Natalie doesn’t even care about the preparations that Barry made for her birthday party in the Vic. They are ready to head off but Ricky’s car has broken down so they have to take the car that Barry bought for Natalie. Barry is still in the Vic waiting for the guest of honour to arrive but Janine knows about Ricky and Natalie and tells Barry. Barry runs outside and sees Natalie driving off but he stops them. Natalie then tells Barry she’s leaving him, Barry takes her into the Vic and shows her what he has organised for her, Natalie runs off to the toilets Barry runs after her and tries o make her change her mind but her minds already made up. Natalie is ready to leave but then Janine tells Natalie that Ricky slept with Sam, Natalie leaves the square only taking her son with he r. Barry is left heartbroken, he then finds out that Pat knew about Ricky and Natalie, Pat and Roy end up having an argument about it, Roy has a heart attack and dies. The issue seen was dealt sensitively because the different characters feelings were expressed, although it was Natalie who was having the affair, you could see that not only was it the innocent partner that was confused but the partner which was committing adultery was even more confused, Natalie wasn’t sure who she wanted to be with at some points and was getting very upset over it. Pat tried to help her make the right decision but Natalie didn’t care. This soap opera made the moral issue less appealing, I think that it made people think more about what they are doing is totally wrong. The reason it did not make it more appealing is because it showed all the different circumstances people were left in, Natalie ended it with Ricky because he slept with Sam, Barry was left with no son and no wife, the baby was left with no father, Pat was left as the enemy and homeless because Roy dies and leaves the house to Barry, so the issue was shown well balanced because all the main characters feelings and circumstances were shown, many of the characters were feeling hurt. Overall I think this soap opera has shown adultery to be unpleasant because it shows just how many peoples lives are ruined not just the adultery committers, but people who try to help them understand what they are doing is wrong, but are then given the evil for not telling the truthful partner. So this teaches most viewers that adultery is not a good thing. I don’t think that soap opera’s might affect people’s behaviour because mostly they deal with issues to express the circumstances of good and bad. This issue would not cause offence because although it is an issue, which is happening in everyday life it is not based on particular people.

How does the director Steven Spielberg make ‘Jaws’ a tense and exiting film to watch? Essay

How does the director Steven Spielberg make ‘Jaws’ a tense and exiting film to watch? The film Jaws, directed by Steven Spielberg in 1975, featuring various techniques to create suspense,excitement and fear throughout the whole film. This is done using different types of camera shots and movement, music, and mis-en-scene.Its about when a gigantic great white shark begins to terrorise the residents in small island community of Amity, a police chief, a marine scientist and fisherman set out to stop it. One of the three significant scenes was, The death of Alex Kitner. the scene takes place on a crowded beach.High key lighting is used through out the scene. The camera uses a tracking shot of a young boy as he goes up to his mother and pleads her to let him have another 10 minutes in the sea. The camera then follows him as he goes to get his lilo and this can create suspense since the audience isn’t sure whether the boy will be the shark’s next victim. His swim shorts are red (red being the colour that attracts sharks as well as being symbolic for danger, fear, and blood). The audience is introduced to different possibilities of the shark’s next victim. This can create suspense since we don’t know who it will be. First, there is the man throwing sticks in the water for his dog to catch- both the man and his dog are possible victims since they are near the sea and it may be that the man has to go in the water himself just in case his dog needs helping. Ther e is also the large lady floating in the water. Brody spots a black shiny shape swimming towards the woman; and then we realise that it’s just the top of an old man’s swim hat as he swims through the water. The camera shot is level with the water and large lady, so it may make the audience feel that they’re in the sea too. A character in the film, named Brody, is also at the beach. He watches the different people and seems agitated as he is not sure if the shark will attack. As one of Brody’s friends are talking(close up on friends face, and wide shot on the side of his face) he sees a young woman screaming and splashing about in the water, paying no attention to his friend, he stands up, ready for action, and then realises it was her boyfriend lifting her up from the water. These two false alarms create anticipation for the audience since they expect the attack to happen and it doesn’t. A tracking shot is used as the boy rushes into the water with his yellow lilo, and the man calls for his dog. This implies that something  fearful is about to happen since his dog has gone missing. This creates suspense since the audience does not know why and how the dog is gone; and whether he’ll return or not. A low angle is used as the boy’s legs kick under the water,with something hurdling towards him.The Jaws theme music is used creating suspense and fear as it gets closer leading to the build up of Alex Kitners death.(Non digectic sound used) The attack is seen in the distance and the long shot indicates that the people on the beach are too far away to save the boy. A general panic occurs as people rush out of the water this scene becomes very fast paced. We do not see the shark. Causing a sudden sense of anticipation. During this, Brody realises what is happening and the camera quickly zooms in on his terrified face. The zooming-in camera shot signifies the attack as powerful and large, coming towards him; which reflects back on what the actual shark itself is like. While parents are rush towards the water to get their children Brody still does not enter the water all he does it tell everyone to get out. After the attack is over, a yellow lilo washes up on the shore, soaked with blood. A high angle is used, the colour yellow is used as the symbolic colour for danger and warning throughout the scene. The man who owns the dog is wearing yellow shorts, and his dog has been attacked by the shark. The boy was floating on a yellow lilo, and he became the shark’s second victim.Usually the colour for danger (red or black) and yellow is normally the colour for happiness and sunshine. So already the audience can sense a tone of difference portrayed in this film. Another scene is Hooper and the boat. It takes place in the Amity sea. Low key lighting is used and it is very misty.This is to cause tension and fear as people most vulnerable when it is dark. When Hooper finds Ben Gardeners boat there is no body there, this cause a sense of mystery. So he goes in the water to find him. Hooper then finds a sharks tooth there is a close up on the tooth. So the audience can try and picture how big the shark is .On his way down calm creepy music is played, Steven does this to trick the viewer into thinking nothing will be happen but then Hooper sees a hole and out comes the remains of Ben the camera zooming to Ben’s face to create more fear. Hooper screams in shock.The music becomes much more high pitched. Hooper then gets away in fear of what will happen if he stay in there any  longer. The third and final scene is the climax. This scene takes place in Amity sea, and has a mixture of both high and low key lighting.The boat is sinking this is shown with a long shot. Brody is stuck inside with the shark on its way. As he tries to find an exit the shark breaks through the window and attacks, with is mouth wide open(close up) and then after an extreme close up of its teeth. This done to scare the audience and is very effective. Brody then puts a gas canister in the sharks mouth with then causes it to retreat but no for long. Spielberg does this to give the audience a sense of relief so when the shark attacked again it will be more shocking.The bells ring to show the boat is sinking.(digetic sound).High pitched music begins. Brody climbs up the pole armed. The shark attacks again. He stabs it with a shark pole.(low angle). There is now a close up of the shark trying to bite Brody (high angle) and a long shot of him trying kill it. The shark eats the pole a goes back into the sea. Brody now prepares to kill the shark by shooting at the gas canister in the sharks mouth.The scene is becomes faced paced as the shark heads toward the boat,waiting for the last second Brody finally shoots at the canister creating a mass explosion(wide shot) of the shark pieces. The is done to cause suspense and excitement for the audience, as waiting till the last second to destroy the shark is more fearful and interesting. These were not the only scenes that were tense and exiting, there was the death of Quint. Both high key lighting and low were used. Since Brody went to the back of the boat when the shark attacked he was not killed.Then the shark came from the water (low key lighting) and opened mouth, close up on mouth, to eat them the boat tilted so that Quint would be falling into its mouth. This was done to show that Quint was powerless to make it more cruel and horrifying death. As quint was sliding it became more fast paced and there were cuts between the shark and Quint this was to build suspense. When Quint was bit, the sound of his bones cracking was to add more effect to make this more realistic and ruthless, him shouting(digetic sound also added effect). As the shark swayed him side to side it became more dreadful to watch but this is what made the scene interesting. When he was dead and the shark pulled him down this built the suspense and what made the scene so captivating. I think Jaws was ground breaking and intense it was made in the 19s and is still so popular. The shark theme music was great it had a good plot and there was a good connection between characters. Some of the shots were great. e.g. the zoom shot. I think people might not like Jaws because of its effects as the 21st century prefers what they watch to be HD and the action scene to look extremely realistic (shark to not look fake), also Jaws was the type of movie which did not let see the shark at the beginning to build the suspense but some people don’t like that other classify Jaws a more of a thriller than a horror. Jaws is still poplar today for many reasons- it theme became popular as you could not forget it, the suspense of not knowing how the shark looked and the fact that everyone thought it was destined to fail as when they started making the movie they had not script, no cast and no shark until Steven came†¦

Systems Of Kinship Emerged During The Middle Ages. Absolute And Essay

Systems Of Kinship Emerged During The Middle Ages. Absolute And Constitutional Monarchy - Essay Example There is no body of laws to govern the conduct of the monarch, therefore few or no legal constraints to their conduct. He or she is the head of government and state. Most absolute monarchs justify it by claiming they have divine rights to the throne. In the twentieth century most absolute monarchs could not withstand the wave of opposition from the people who regarded them as defeated and outdated, because of the failure of political and economic systems, which fell apart, under their rule. In the twenty first century, most absolute monarchs exist in the Arab world. They have managed to stay relevant because they have allowed technological and scientific advancement into their territories. Religion has also played a major role; hence their societies have remained relatively conservative. In theory absolute monarchs have unlimited powers, however in practice, their powers are curtailed by political leaders from other social classes such as nobility and clergy. Modern examples of absol ute monarchs are Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Swaziland. Napoleon Bonaparte is considered as a successful absolute monarch who ruled France in the sixteenth century. This was important for France at that particular time because the country was in chaos as people did not follow the rule of law and the nobility controlled the state finances. An absolute monarchy was seen as the only way out. Most countries saw a decline in absolute monarchies because they became republics after civil unrests in the nineteenth century such as the French revolution. Constitutional monarchy is also referred to as limited monarchy. The monarch is bound by the constitution of the land, which can either be unwritten or written. In constitutional monarchs, the monarch is the head of the state, a position acquired through heritance or marriage, while, a prime minister elected through a democratic process is the head of government. The powers held by this type of monarch vary from country to the other. Most constit utional monarchs exist in western European countries. Examples of constitutional monarchs include United Kingdom, Japan, Sweden, Belgium and Thailand. Governance functions fall on politicians, while monarchs perform ceremonial duties and are usually perceived as a unifying symbol of a country .This century has forty four independent monarch states of which sixteen have Queen Elizabeth of England, as their head of state. The monarch usually provides continuity because, even as heads of government change, monarchs retain their positions. Most existing constitutional monarchs in this century perform ceremonial duties and usually seen as a continuation of a country’s traditional systems, and a symbol of unity. This role was witnessed in Austria in 1977, where, there was a deadlock in the parliament. The monarch replaced the prime minister and budget proceeding went on uninterrupted. It should be noted that the monarch is neutral in political matters. The powers vested on monarchs vary from country to another, for example in Sweden the monarch is only ceremonial and in United Kingdom, the queen is the head of the armed forces. The head of constitutional monarchs are usually a male or female; however in a monarch such as the principality of Monaco, powers will be transferred to France if no male heir is born. Japan and Thailand are the monarchs with the largest population of subjects. This type of monarch is good for the people because it protects the civil rights of the

Collective Effort and Collective Liability Essay

Collective Effort and Collective Liability - Essay Example These intentional misuses of personal information are punishable whether they are carried out by hand, through the conventional postage system, or through electronic means (18 U.S.C. section 1028 (c).   Because the Identity Theft Act of 1998 was deemed an inadequate deterrent, Congress passed the Identity Theft Penalty Enhancement Act in 2004 in order to increase sentences for violators of the 1998 Act (18 U.S.C. 1028A).   Despite these new laws, and the enhanced punishments, identity theft continues to plague individuals (Lahey & Matejkovic, 2001), businesses (Beales, 2002; Collins, 2003), and even powerful and well-resourced governmental organizations (Identity Theft.   Internal Revenue Service, nd; Kahn & Roberds, 2005).   The irony is that the identity theft crime has many enemies, legislation in place to criminalize all acts associated with identity theft, enhanced punishment legislation, and yet the crime is increasing rather than decreasing; clearly, therefore, current responses are inadequate.   Even a cursory examination of the relevant data and statistics is sobering.   From a financial point of view, Collins notes that â€Å"Personal identity theft is a $100-billion perannum industry worldwide; however,†¦the cost of stolen business identities can be expected to be even greater† (2003).   The statistics are similarly disturbing in terms of the sheer number of individuals, businesses, and governmental organizations which have been victimized in some.... As a preliminary matter, identity theft is defined by federal statute. The Identity Theft Act defines identity theft as occurring whenever a person "knowingly and without lawful authority produces an identification document or a false identification document" (18 U.S.C. section 1028(a)(1), 1998) or otherwise possesses, transfers, uses, or creates an identification document or false identification document while knowing that any of these acts are unlawful. (18 U.S.C. sections1028 (a)(2)-(a)(7), 1998). These intentional misuses of personal information are punishable whether they are carried out by hand, through the conventional postage system, or through electronic means (18 U.S.C. section 1028 (c). Because the Identity Theft Act of 1998 was deemed an inadequate deterrent, Congress passed the Identity Theft Penalty Enhancement Act in 2004 in order to increase sentences for violators of the 1998 Act (18 U.S.C. 1028A). Despite these new laws, and the enhanced punishments, identity theft continues to plague individuals (Lahey & Matejkovic, 2001), businesses (Beales, 2002; Collins, 2003), and even powerful and well-resourced governmental organizations (Identity Theft. Internal Revenue Service, nd; Kahn & Roberds, 2005). The irony is that the identity theft crime has many enemies, legislation in place to criminalize all acts associated with identity theft, enhanced punishment legislation, and yet the crime is increasing rather than decreasing; clearly, therefore, current responses are inadequate. Even a cursory examination of the relevant data and statistics is sobering. From a financial point of view, Collins notes that

The Analgesic Effects of Acupuncture Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Analgesic Effects of Acupuncture - Assignment Example The paragraph shows an aspect of the medical field that has been rarely studied and is never properly understood. However, as mentioned in the paragraph, Acupuncture has started the to evolve from its roots in Asia to other developed parts of the world. The paragraph is well- written and is focused on the main topic at hand. It does not dwell on other irrelevant facts and figures. The feature of the paragraph that is to be greatly appreciated is the citation of two articles which shows the effects of acupuncture on both animal and humans alike. The studies cited in the paragraph have been explained in the detailed description. The main problem that the researcher noticed in the paragraph is the lack of justification to the main topic. The two articles that are mentioned in the paragraph although selected very well are little less to justify the analgesic effects. The author can add a few more of the relevant articles to prove his point. Furthermore, the author can select such article s which are backed by numbers and figures but the two articles that are already mentioned do not mention the amount or extent of decrease in analgesic pain. Another problem that the researcher found is that the paragraph has a number of problems which include grammatical errors and punctuation errors. These errors should be reviewed before submission. The author can also change some words and find more suitable alternatives for certain words. For e.g. in L3 of the paragraph the word â€Å"part† can be replaced with â€Å"component† or any other suitable word. The third problem that the researcher thinks may cause difficulties among the audience is the use of certain terminologies that are quite difficult to decipher for the general public. The author should add explanations for certain terminologies like Yanglinquan, Yinlinquan, Zhusanli, Dubi, Kunlun, Xuanzhong, Sanyinjiao and Taixi. The fourth problem is that the two articles that are mentioned in the paragraph are n ot well written or descriptive, the methodology should be more well-defined and the results should be based on a certain number and figure rather than the subject’s word of mouth. The mechanism of pain reduction should be elaborately explained as well.

HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND FORCED LABOR Ukrainian human trafficking Essay

HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND FORCED LABOR Ukrainian human trafficking situation - Essay Example The paper points out to exploitation of the Right to Work in negative ways by some groups of people - human traffickers. These groups oppress people so that they can get cheap labor through fraudulent activities and misuse of power. The human rights advocate that Trafficking victims’ protection act of 2000 define human trafficking as subjecting humans to labor, illegal activities, prostitution and other forms of inhuman acts without their consent. It involves falsely recruiting, harboring, and transporting of a person for labor and services, through force, fraud or coercion. This essay demonstrates the problem of human trafficking and forced labor, namely the Ukrainian human trafficking situation. Ukraine is one of the main countries where humans are subjected to labor trafficking. In fact, Ukraine IOM and local NGOs reported that 49 percent of Ukraine population are victims of labor trafficking (State Department) (Ball & Hampton 13-14). Ukrainian victims mostly are sent to high-income countries such Russia, Poland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and many other European countries (trafficking in prisons 34) (Ball & Hampton 14). The paper outlines that most Ukrainian who are victims of labor trafficking are located in the countryside areas, in towns that have high unemployment rates. In order to protect these victims and reduce the human trafficking, the Ukrainian government created an anti-trafficking law in 2011 (Ball & Hampton 19). This led to many arrests of human traffickers.

The Complexities of Love and Life- Connections in literature Essay

The Complexities of Love and Life- Connections in literature - Essay Example It is very difficult for a father to cry and they would often just take everything like funerals â€Å"in stride† but the mere fact that the father is visibly crying must have been such a moving scene. It is therefore a scene where one forgets about society’s conventions and just be true to one’s sentiments. The pain of the death of one’s child must have therefore been extraordinarily difficult even for a father. The mother is the same, her â€Å"angry tearless sighs† (13) indicating that she has no more tears to shed after perhaps crying terribly much. Moreover, the â€Å"hard blow† (6) and the fact that the boy is â€Å"paler† now (18) somehow illustrate both the painful and sentimental aspects of death. The boy must have been hit by a car and is now looking pale and lifeless. From the tears, one can see that this pain must have been extremely hard for the parents and the speaker to bear. In the same way, in Ransom’s poem, the imagery illustrates the pain of death, but rather in the form of vexation: â€Å"†¦we are ready/ In one house we are sternly stopped/ To say we are vexed at her brown study† (Ransom 17-19). This means that the people that the girl left behind may have been somehow pretending that she is still alive. Perhaps, they are too annoyed or â€Å"vexed† now because she remains stationary in her brown study or in hear dead state. Nevertheless, it is clear that the bereaved are merely in a state of denial, as they may still not be able to painfully digest the truth of their little girl’s death. Imagery of death and sadness also abounds in Robert West’s â€Å"Early snowdrops.† In the poem, after recounting the names of young people who died early in their lives, the speaker is worried about her own children for they might have an accident early and might die. In the poem, imagery denoting death includes the line â€Å"each day must stab with random

The American Revolutionary War Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

The American Revolutionary War - Research Paper Example Britain had ruled over the thirteen colonies in America for more than 200 years prior to the Revolution. By the beginning of the Revolution, the wars against France fought on both sides of the Atlantic had burdened Britain with a massive national debt. To ease the national debt, Parliament imposed taxes on the colonists believing it only fair that they bear part of the expenses incurred by the British military in protecting them from Indian attacks and French invasions. The Stamp Act taxed paper goods sent to the colonies. It was the first of these laws while, with the tea tax, was one of the most infamous of these laws. The colonists thought taxation without representation in the British government to be unjust and openly protested these laws which led to hostilities between British troops and the Massachusetts Minutemen in 1775. This and other conflicts with the ‘Red Coats’ led to colonists forming the Continental Congress which immediately created the Continental Army and in 1776, signed the Declaration of Independence (The American Revolution, 2006). The Americans, outmatched by more than three-to-one, were predictably defeated in the majority of battles that occurred during the war’s first year. However, the Americans’ fortune began to change following the victories at Saratoga and Germantown in 1777. These important first triumphs gave increased credibility to what had previously been widely considered as an unorganized, minor uprising certain to be vanquished by the mighty British army. By 1778, France had become convinced that Britain stood the chance of being defeated. Wanting nothing more than this, America’s first formal alliance was with the French.  

Six Degrees Could Change the World Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Six Degrees Could Change the World - Essay Example One scene from the movie seemed harmless enough. It was merely a vineyard estate producing wine-quality grapes in England. It may seem harmless, but in reality, this is a compelling evidence of global warming effects already occurring around the world. Only a few years ago, it was truly impossible to cultivate wine-quality grapes in a weather environment such as ones in England. As favorable as this weather transformation is for English wine industry, such a transformation signals the end of the world for observers of universal weather modifications. Wine grapes budding in England is a clear indication that its regular daily temperature has augmented perhaps by a couple of degrees already. The documentary brings forward numerous actual examples and instances of early global warming. In addition, Bowman's direction is most solid in this part of the film. Baldwin's telling together with these illustrations of global warming in addition to the end of time situations of what might and wi ll happen if temperature continues to increase make Six Degrees Could Change the World among the best of 2008's ecological documentary films.With this, the film has definitely moved and changed the perspective and outlook of its viewers such as myself about the reality the world is facing right now. Without any remarkable change from our own selves, with the determination and will to actually save our planet, our home, the world will be destroyed. We must be the change that will stop the destruction of our only beautiful and amazing world.

Is Management an Art or a Science Essay Example for Free

Is Management an Art or a Science Essay One of the enduring questions in the field of management is whether it is an art or a science. In order to be able discuss whether management is an art or a science we need to define what ‘management’, ‘art’ and ‘science’ are. Management is a set of activities (including planning and decision making, organizing, leading, and controlling) directed at an organizations resources (human, financial, physical, and information) with the aim of achieving organizational goals in an efficient and effective manner. In general an art defines as skill in conducting any human activity and science as any skill or technique that reflects a precise application of facts or a principle. Management as a science would indicate that in practice, managers use a specific body of knowledge consisting of principles, generalizations, approaches and concepts to apply in certain situations. That is, when faced with a managerial problem, the manager who believes in the scientific foundation of his or her craft will expect that there is a rational and objective way to determine the correct course of action. The principles of management have been developed and formulated on the basis of observation, research, analysis and experimentation and also based on relationship of cause and effect like other sciences. Another proponent of the management as science, many early management researchers subscribed to the vision of managers as scientists. The scientific management movement was the primary driver of this perspective. Scientific managements emphasis on both reducing inefficiencies and on understanding the psychology of workers changed manager and employee attitudes towards the practice of management. These are the basic characteristics that can be proved management is a science, but not exactly. Management as an art requires no specific body of knowledge, only skill. Conversely, those who believe management is an art are likely to believe that there is no specific way to teach or understand management, and that it is a skill borne of personality and ability. One more reason for considering management as an art is that in many situations, practicing managers are unlikely to believe that scientific principles and theories will be able to implement in actual managerial situations. Instead, these managers are likely to consider a broad range of social and political factors, and likely to take different actions depending on the context of the problem. And application of management knowledge calls for innovativeness and creativity. In this case managers go on discovering new ideas, relationships and more efficient ways of doing things. Both views of management, as a science or as an art, can provide ample evidence to support heir viewpoints, and they all seem correct and reasonable from their perspective. But an efficient manager has to acquire a theoretical knowledge of management and subsequently, use it to develop it and, gather experience. Robert Hilkert has beautifully explained that â€Å"In area of management , science and art are two sides of the same coin† Thus, in my opinion I think that management is a combination of both science and art, because managing as practice is an art and the organized knowledge underlying the practice is a science.

The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen Essay Example for Free

The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen Essay During the Enlightenment era, a period that lasted between the 17th and 18th centuries, European countries began associating with new methods of inquiry. There was a return to the classics, as well as a passion for reason over religion. The big idea was that there were no limits to human understanding, and that all humans are good and equal in nature. The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, an article written by the National Assembly, is a prime example of an enlightenment text, for in seventeen simple articles, it expresses the basic rights of man and citizens. The first article states, â€Å"men are born and remain free and equal in rights. Social distinctions may be founded only upon the general good.† During enlightenment, it was believed that all humans are good people, although there was always room for improvement. This idea relates to article one, for article one proclaims that social distinctions are determined solely on how a person you are. Article two states, â€Å"the aim of all political association is the preservation of the natural and imprescriptible rights of man. These rights are liberty, property, security and resistance to oppression.† Enlightenment thinkers believed that before the law, people have rights to life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness, which is directly represented in article two. The last article which truly exemplifies enlightenment ideas is article ten, which states, â€Å"no one shall be disquieted on account of his opinions, including his religious views, provided their manifestation does not disturb the public order established by law. During enlightenment, people believed that there should be a separation between church and state. Article thirteen is a perfect example of this idea, proving that The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen was an enlightenment- based text.

Hospitality Industry Questions and Answers

Hospitality Industry Questions and Answers Introduction What is Hospitality? People serving you popcorn when you entered a cinema, concierge in a five star hotel and the museum tour guide have the common? They are all work in servicing which is under the house of hospitality industry. Do you know that hospitality industry is the largest industry throughout the world? It is the main source of income for majority countries. Hospitality is not just about a simple servicing, but it involves in showing respect for ones guests, provide for their needs and wants, and treating each other as equals. Hospitality industry involved hotels, casinos, and resorts which provide comfort and a sort of guidance to guests. The term hospital, hospice and hostel are deriving from hospitality and these establishments protect more of the connotation of personal care. It refers to a types of establishment where provide shelter and foods for people which is in needed or away from their home. Hospitality was founded by Bob Luitweiler in year 1949 and this establis hment are responsible in setting up a building, provide secure, pleasant place for a temporary stay, cleaning and maintaining premises. Now days, customers expectation is high. Quality is perhaps the most variable feature in hospitality industry. Answer for Question 1 Hospitality, a contemporaneous human exchange, which is voluntary entered into, and designed to intensify the mutual well being of the parties concerned through the provision of accommodation, and / or food, and / or drink. Hospitality industry had a wide scope. According to the historians, the development of hospitality industry had been traced in a thousand of years and many cultures. A professional hospitality industry must always keep updating according to the needs and wants of the societies. Success in the hotel industry are always relies on catering to the needs of the targeted clientele. Besides, providing a wide variety of services and pleasantness desirable atmosphere will always drive the hospitality industry into a large, multi faceted and diverse industry. The main component in hospitality industry is all about dealing with customers and lead to the satisfaction of the customers in every service provided since the yore days. Hospitality industry has begun since 3000 B.C ago. The field of hospitality encompassing travel, tourism, restaurants, and recreation. There are some advantages and disadvantages for every business and staff. This happen same to hospitality industry. For your knowledge, hospitality industry is a very wide scope; it mainly concentrated in two largest establishments throughout the world. Example for these two establishments is stated in the figure belowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ Lodging What is lodging? It means the lodging segment of the hospitality industry example like hotels, inns, motels, resorts, chalet, and others more. In summary, lodging means any establishment which provides a bed for a fee or embrace of rent and a reasonable allowance for utilities and use appliances and furniture. Basically a lodging establishment always included elements of entertainment, personal services, recreation and food service for wayfarer. Majority of lodging facilities in the world extend from tiny bed and breakfasts meal to the latest development, megaresorts. Niches between these ultimate include commercial hotels, city center hotels, resort hotels, suburban hotels, highways hotels/motels, airport hotels, economy properties, conference centers, all suite hotels, and casino hotels. Essence of a successful set of business operations means the successful in exchange products or services for value. In a set of business, its a chain of supply with demand. Luxury hotels are selling their suite and other kind of facilities in the hotel to the guests which provide their demand. Supply and demand is the point where profits earn in a business. Product and services in a service industry like lodging, is a holistic concept. It consist of tangibles like hotel type and physical amenities and intangibilities like services provided by the lodging staff. Customer wants and needs are always changing and varied. As customer are becoming increasingly demanding, hotels must be designed and created to be more responsive and effective in order to achieve different travelers needs and wants. Advantages In 21st century, people have a necessity in staying at some city or town for an extended period of time. When a people are away from home, lodging is the only accommodation for them to have a stay. Many people are worried about how much they are going to spend for the accommodation. As a matter of fact, staying in a hotel got a couple of benefits. Privilege of day services such like room cleaning and laundry really put away the stress of the guests in doing the laundry them self after a tiring working day. Leisure places like gymnastic room or swimming pool are other attractions for customer to choosing in staying in a hotel. Since price is the first priority to the customer, hotel must be always updated to the latest promotions and events from the competitors. Furthermore, localization played an important role in advantages in lodging. There are two types of location of a hotel which is more preferred by peoples. First of all is conference hotel which is located in a city or a conference area of a country. These hotels normally targeted more on businessman. The location of the hotel enables them to travel to the work place or meeting center easily. Secondly are vocational locations. Hotels which is located near a beautiful view example like beach resort or a hotel located in a tourism area are mostly targeted on family. These hotels are free from the peak working hour in a busy city, free from noise and air pollution is always the selection of a family vacation. Environment is another factor of advantages in lodging. Example like a hotel located on a beautiful waterfront enable the guest to enjoy the mesmerizing views from their room. It is an indeed to stay at one of these hotels for stressful or a busy businessman. Do you know that other than the view of a lodging, customers demand for quality entertainment too? Good entertainment example like a luxury pub, sea diving or even a luxury swimming pool will attracts more guests with stress release and entertainment seeker demand. Disadvantages Large hotels with thousands of rooms, modern leisure facilities and wide choice of dining options are always the advantages in lodging. But, this also causes disadvantages to the lodging. A waiting line in reception area always can be seen in large lodging. A large hotel requires good management. A failure management will just slow down the running process in a hotel daily. We cant predict whether the guest will have a late check out and this causes the incoming guest to have a wait before they can check into their room. Secondly, a large hotel sometimes will face the problem of insufficient staffs. In a luxury dining, due to the staff are insufficient, they are always run off their feet by the number of guests. Unfortunately, guests will be kept waiting when they need something while the staffs are busying in handling another guest. Example like you ask for a menu, you might be able to be waiting for the menus to be brought to you until your stomach start rumbling. Food service Food service is a large industry which deals with all the preparations of food outside the home. Example like establishing a restaurant, catering a wedding party, and running a cafeteria are all forms of food service. Normally these restaurants lay institutional food service in business, colleges, hospitals and remedial faculties. A bunches amount of goods and services fall under the coverage of food service, example like establishment which transport food and equipment related to kitchen, silverware and so forth. Job opportunities had been wider up due to human energy is needed in this set of industry. Restaurateurs, waiters, dietitians and chefs are some example of worker needed in food service industry. Some people in this industry are sent for training so that they are qualified to work in this industry. High class luxury dining needs talent and qualified people to work in it. Colleges now days are offering hospitality courses. In year 2008, there were 546,300 privately owned food service and drinking places around the United Sates. 47 percent of these establishment primarily serve patrons who order and pay before eating while 39 percent of establishment offer full service restaurant; being served well and after consume their delicious cuisine only make a payment. Another 9 percent had been comprised by drinking places and special food service like caterers had comprised about 5 percent of all establishments in this industry. Food service can be defined as worlds most widespread and familiar industry. Advantages In food service industry, human energy is needed in a big amount. From the chef, assistant chef until waiter got quite a many positions. Here is where the job opportunities once again wider up. The requirements for these positions example like a cleaner in a dining or waiters do not need high education levels. People with a diploma or degree on hand can hold the position of a manager in a department. As there is getting more and more lodging and dining is developing, it is quite an opportunities for youngers out there to get a bright future for themselves through hardworking. Besides, food industry targeted people which are looking for foods when they are starving. This is why choosing a correct location will be the final judges on how well the set of business will go. A restaurant which located in a down town of course will grab some customers from the busy working life in the city. First its easy to find, save up the customer time, and even some time rusher people can just have a take away meal near a restaurant near his / her company. In this highly competitive hospitality industry, a well and professional trained staff is essential to the key of success of any food service establishment. Besides, technology influences the food services industry in many ways by enhancing efficiency and productivity. Order are being taken down by electronic devices, patron seating are all contributing in an efficient fast serving Disadvantages Yes it is an advantage when the job opportunities are getting wider and a student which is just graduated will be easier to get a job in hospitality industry. But, a new staff with just a piece of diploma or degree and without any working experience will eventually affect the efficiency of service in any establishment. Some time in on the job training will be needed again before these new employees are able to handle the tasks and responsibilities in a restaurant. Besides, location of a restaurant in down town is a good starting point in successful service industry. But, do you know it is very expensive for the rental for the shop which is located in down town? Shop lots in down town got limited quantities too, and competitors are many out there. Another factor which leads to disadvantages in food service industry is about the working hour. Works in the food industry are always grueling and demanding. Working hours are often long and irregular and dealing with varied and complex situation. Besides, people also must highly attune to the need of customer satisfaction. However, wages are heavily based on the tips from customers, and employees may have a limited access to the benefits and protections from the government such as minimum wage laws. Conclusion In hospitality industry, good service is the top priority and is the primary focus in order to achieve customer satisfaction. Working in hospitality industry must always keep this in mind, Customers do not buy service delivery but they buy experiences; they do not buy service quality but they buy memories; they do not buy foods and drinks but the buy meal experiences; they do not buy event or functions but they buy occasions. In hospitality industry, we are the dreamers of dreams. We are required to make the guest to feel that the host being hospitable through feelings of generosity which is a desire to please and a genuine regard for the guest as an individual. Remember, hospitality industries are always an honorable profession and we are the industry which mostly deals with customers needs and wants. Question 2 Find out the factors that affecting travel and tourism. Explain in detail Introduction Travel and tourism is mainly for recreation, leisure or business purposes. Tourism is very important to the hospitality industry as it is the main support of the revenue in lodging. Tourism refers to the activities of persons travelling to and staying in a place outside for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purpose. Therefore, these people are considered to be tourists; on a visit that is temporary and short term. These organizations include restaurants, hotels, motels and resorts. There are two types of tourism which is domestic tourism and outbound tourism. Domestic tourism refers to people which take holidays or a few days trip in their own country. Example like a family is visit to another part of the country. Outbound tourism refers to people which travel away from home and visit to another country for leisure or business purpose. However, no matter what type of travel it is, these people will always ended up in staying in lodging. This is where the revenue of the hospitality industry started. Answer for Question 2 Travel and tourism has become a popular global leisure activity. Tourists are generally classified in statistics according to the duration and purpose of their journey. Day trippers refers to tourists which is away from home just for a day and dont need any accommodation. Visitors which need an accommodation can be classified by their length of stay, such as one night or more. These visitors may be classified as to whether they are touring for business or leisure purposes. People travel for leisure is because they are living in a hectic life style, they are seeking for a relaxation which is away from a busying life, and they need a rest and prestige. There are a few factors which affecting travel and tourism. Growing Leisure Leisure can be defined as the opposite meaning of idleness. People now days are busying in working, keeping themselves in a busy and hectic life style. But, as the world is neither changing, nor the policies in any organization is changing too. Most of the companies out there had been generous in providing their employees paid holidays and even some large organization are providing a three day weekends. A more flexible arrangements has been added into peoples leisure time, and eventually, these liberal company policies had enable the employees to go for a vacation or travel to give themselves a break. Income In the 21st century, most of the women are working in order to maintain their family income. What does it mean by maintain the family income? It is more on referring if one spouse loses a job, that wont causes elimination of all the family income. Besides, due to the education which is though is school or college, women had more motives in working outside. They seek for challenges, they seek for work which is professional and excitement and another reason why women choose to work after marriage is they want to give a more comfortable and satisfying life to her family. Everyone works in maintaining a comfortable life style. Of course, when you are busy in working, especially for a marriage person, after a tiring working day, they might still need to take care of their children at home in the night and some house works still need to be done. Eventually, leisure time for our own will be immolated. So, if there is a time for them to get away from this hectic life style, it is not surpris ing when they spend their money on the goods and services they demanded. Time will be a bounty for them. They wont bother about the price for their travel, because it is not easy for them to get a rest in such pressure and hectic life style, good and quality travelling will always be their wise choice. Push and Pull Factors The travelling motives for people tend to categorize as escaping from and / or escaping to a particular destination. Push factor brings up the meaning of a person who travel to a place due to his / her response in what is missing. Pull factors brings up the meaning of attractiveness of a places and attract the people to visit to it. Push and pull factor can be classifies into nine motives to travel which seven of those are socio psychological or known as push motives; the other two are defined as cultural or pull motives. Push motives are escapism, relaxation, retrogression, social inter action, self exploration and prestige while pull motives are innovation and education. There is also two main type of push and pull factors which is personal and interpersonal. Interpersonal is a result of social interaction. Personal rewards are self determination, sense of competence or challenge. Technology change Technological changes within tourism included several different factors from medical advances to the innovative tourism. Better communication, transport like cruise ships and safety have emboldened new customers which demand easier, quicker and cheaper service, this demand can only be fulfill by the help of technology. Besides, new transportation also got an advance in time management. Shorter and efficient time period is just needed for a person to travel from a country to another side of the planet. Furthermore, through technological advances, online booking has been one of the biggest factors in affecting travel and tourism. Users are enabling to check for travelling packages from tour agencies websites and direct purchase it by just a few clicks at home without need to go to the agencies. With the association and sponsored from different tour agencies and organizations, MATTA FAIR had been organized. MATTA FAIR is an open public fair which offer supreme packages which can be affo rd by economical income family. Development in technology had leads more and more people are getting to travelling around the world rather than remain at their own country and stick in the hectic daily schedule. Demographic The topic middle aging of America which is a significant demographic change had proved that middle age generally indicated to higher income and a greater propensity to travel. The group of people with age around 35 to 44 is most likely to stay in accommodations or a longer outstation trip, whether is for leisure or business purpose. Another significant demographic development for tourism is about the growing of the mature market which mean group of people with age over 55. This group of people got their mortgages paid and a large proportion of them have a nest egg of savings and retirement benefits to withdrawn. This had enabled these groups of people to travel around the world and enjoy for the rest for their life. This people with age 55 65 years old as the first baby boomers which move into their mature years will be very excited and active in seeking a whole new experience which is deal with the travel and leisure moment in their life after being retired. And this is the reason they are able to have a long period vacation. Another group of aging people which is over the age of 85 normally suggest an expansion in assisted living facilities. Safety Security Safety and security have been identified as one of the global forces that would drive the tourism industry in a new millennium. Things that tourisms worried when they are staying in a hotel at any destination are all about the same which is: Assault Raping Larceny Robbery Fire within premises Protecting the lives of guests and workers, property and assets of the business from criminal actions includes security checks on existing design and technology. Lighting of the public and external areas, building access, key control, security of guestroom doors, and guarding of the property must be always keep updated and check by the maintenance department. All the employees should be trained to know about all the appropriate security procedures when there is an emergency happened example like a fire situation. If the safety and security in a lodging establishment is good and well management, eventually guests which stay at the first time will get good impression from it and eventually will recognize it to their friends when they back to their country. Conclusion Travel and tourism is important to the hospitality industry. The most common reason why people go for travel is leisure, and sometimes followed by business. An attractive environment appeals to tourists, whether is natural or built, and the development of the industry in a locality will relate to the surrounding area. People are travelling by car more than any other means. Travel by air had been increase over the last 10 years. But, the fares begin to rise and this causes people taught that travelling is expensive. This is why some people just ignore travelling and keep themselves in busy working. Communications between air lines and tourism industry should make an agreement in order to bring up the tourism industry. Rising of fares will never give any help in bringing the tourism industry to a new millennium.

The Truth About White Supremacy: American History X :: essays research papers

The Truth About White Supremacy: American History X   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  As a Hispanic, I suppose I should expect or, be prepared, rather, for racism and discrimination. Thankfully, I have not experienced either.. yet. Our world is not perfect; things take place that we rather not know about, but ignoring the problem seems to only make matters worse. The movie American History X, is an admirable attempt to inform us about these types of malicious ignorance that plague our society. The impeccable acting, artistic cinematography, occasional adrenaline-pumping score, and slightly faulted, though award-worthy script, all combine to create an overall exceptional film. American History X should not be immediately dismissed as an archetypal account of a controversial issue, it provides much more than what an audience would expect from a movie of this nature; it is an innovative drama about the unfortunate consequences of racism in a family that is surprisingly yet, frighteningly realistic.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The dynamic that greatly contributes to the efficiency of American History X, is the illustrious acting. Edward Norton flawlessly plays Derek Vinyard, the main character in American History X, who is angered by the murder of his father by two African-American persons who then, therefore, turns to the world of Neo-Nazism searching for comfort toward his father’s death and for further justification for the hatred he has towards the murderers. After being released from prison for serving a three-year sentence of manslaughter after brutally murdering two black individuals, Derek comes out a changed man who no longer persecutes blacks and other minority figures for invading and tragically altering the life of â€Å"true† Americans. Edward Norton is more than perfect for this role. In his â€Å"Believe Me† film review site, Jeffery Huston explains, â€Å"With this performance, Norton emerges as one of the very best actors working in film today.â₠¬  Norton’s performance was indeed electrifying. One particular scene in the film that shows the phenomenal talent he possesses, is the incident that shows us what his character was incarcerated for. After brutally murdering two black victims, police quickly arrive and begin to place Derek under arrest. Norton shines as his character is being seized; as he sets his hands on his head and slowly turns, he meets eyes with his horrified brother, Danny, who witnessed everything, and triumphantly smirks as the sinister expression in his glistening eyes reveals unsettling satisfaction, then smugly raises his eyebrows as if asking his younger brother if he is impressed.

Weather and Technology Essay -- essays papers

Weather and Technology Weather has been almost an unpredictable element that the world faces every day. Predicting weather has almost been impossible until technology came into the picture. There have been big technological breakthroughs with satellites and radars that help forecasters predict future weather conditions all around the world. Technologies has advanced throughout the years and are continuing to become more advanced today. Technology has helped scientist understand the most dangerous natural disasters in the world to help protect the public and allow society get to a safe location when the time is necessary. Radar, stands for Radio detection and ranging. Radar transmits microwaves in a focused beam. The microwave energy bounces off of its primary object and returns as data to be measured (Weather Questions 1). Radar then will send pulses of energy, rather than a continuous signal, which it will then measure how far away the object was when the microwaves reflected off of it. Combined with the radar's ability to scan up and down and in a circular motion which allows the radar to detect elements in all directions, modern radars can measure three dimensionally and up to one hundred miles from the radar(Weather Questions 2). The development and advancement in the radar has progressed the ability to learn more about weather and its developments. As radar continually develops and becomes more advanced, the more likely scientist will be able to understand and predict the future directions and outcomes a storm may have. Weather satellites have been our eyes in the sky for more than 40 years. Weather satellite images showing the advanced weather fronts are regular elements of the news station. Satellites give ... ...fely make it through a snowstorm. Technology has effectively improved the predictions and understanding of very serious natural disasters and storms. Radars and Satellites have greatly helped scientists predict the pathways of storms and weather fronts. Due to the advancement of technology scientists have started to learn and understand the devilments and anatomies of the most feared natural disasters such as Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and Snowstorms. Scientist’s predictions and discoveries have helped the public get into a safer location. Weather technology advanced and is continuing to improve to help prevent casualties and economic loses. Weather Technology has came a long way from the pioneering days of storm predictions, If the technology continues to improve there is a great possibility that the public will become more prepared and damages will be at a minimum.

Benefits of Playing Video Games Essay -- Video Games

Video games have been argued about for decades. Some people have argued that video games are linked to violence. However, new research shows that video games can be used for therapeutic purposes, exercise, stress relievers, positive interactive learning, hand eye coordination, and different types of patient treatment for people all around the world. When playing video games, the coordination and concentration can physically, socially, and mentally benefit the user. Research today shows that certain video games can reduce fat and therefore promote weight loss. Other sources state that doctors have instructed parents to let their children play video games to help control focus. It is found that video games can improve hand eye coordination and have been used for rehabilitation of wounded soldiers. Gamming has developed in technology, and created many new positive effects. Over the years video games has become popular, the history of gamming continues all the way back to board games, new equipment has created constructive and entertaining learning experiences. Video games are used to improve physical health. Playing video games does not mean being inactive. New and improved video games involve and incorporate different types of movement in the actual game. Certain video games can reduce fat causing global weight loss (Recio 143). By turning game systems into exercise, new generation games draw people into activities and get heart rates pumping. Schools have incorporated video games into part of their physical education program. Children’s waists lines have gone down by inches due to playing video games in gym class. In gym, the machines teach things like balance, timing, and coordina... ...e dealing with technology everywhere and their whole lives. Video games help make kids feel comfortable with technology. Video games now provide a fun and social form of entertainment and are used all over the world for positive effects. Gaming has had positive effects on aiding weight loss, improving the efficiency of visual skills, controlling anger, creating fun interactive learning environments, and has become a new way of therapy to help rehabilitate patients. The new Wii programs will certainly develop and continue to perform more incredible effects on different people. New gaming technology is being developed every year; the effects can only get more enhanced. Source "Video game play may provide learning, health, social benefits." American Psychological Association. February 2014, Vol 45, No. 2 http://www.apa.org/monitor/2014/02/video-game.aspx

Finance Manager

Fiscal Policy in Kenya: Looking Toward the Medium-to Long-Term By Kamau Thugge, Peter S Heller, and Jane Kiringai[1] Executive Summary Kenya’s authorities, in articulating their vision for the next two decades of Kenya’s development, understood clearly that fiscal policy would need to play a critical role in influencing the pace at which the economy will grow and its capacity to deal with the key challenges that will arise over the next several decades.Domestic policy challenges include a high population growth, rapid urbanization, significant weaknesses in infrastructural capacity, inadequate levels of investments, and pressures for decentralization. External challenges include security risks as well as an uncertain global economic growth environment. Fiscal policy will not only affect macroeconomic stability, but also whether Kenya can transition to a higher economic growth path, reduce its high poverty rate, and address its substantial income, asset, and regional ine qualities.The paper by Thugge, Heller and Kiringai examines whether Kenya’s medium-term fiscal policy strategy is responsive to addressing the potential scale of the challenges confronting Kenya, particularly given the inevitable uncertainties assicuated with the global economic environment. It also takes stock of the impact of recent developments on the viability of the original strategy. Kenya is likely to face in the next two decades and the scope of its policy goals for this period.Section II will briefly identify both the domestic policy challenges that Kenya’s fiscal policy-makers must address in coming years as well as the different potential external policy environments within which these policies must be formulated. Section III reviews the Government of Kenya’s (GOK) fiscal policy strategy, as broadly embodied in its recently issued long-run perspective–Vision 2030, but more concretely in the Medium Term Plan for 2008/09-2012/13 and the Medium-Te rm Budget Strategy Paper (MTBSP) for 2009/10-11/12.In particular, it will examine the economic and institutional assumptions underlying this strategy; the policy choices made in terms of the balance between the roles of the public and private sectors; the choice among alternative public spending priorities; the way in which possible downside risks are addressed; the approach to financing fiscal initiatives; and the sustainability of the fiscal and debt strategy. Section IV will then assess whether the GOK’s chosen policy strategies appear both responsive to the long-term policy challenges identified in Section II and robust to the downside risks in the external economic environment.II. Medium to long-run challenges In Vision 2030, Kenya aspires to achieve middle-income status by 2030 through the realization of a 10 percent per annum real growth rate for the period 2012-2030. This is a highly ambitious objective although not an unreasonable aspiration, given the importance of Kenya to the regional economy of East Africa and the many assets that Kenya possesses in terms of its human capital and its industrial, service, and tourism potential.But achieving this goal will require that Kenya successfully pursue disciplined and ambitious policies that will confront the many domestic and external policy challenges it now faces. It will also require a bit of luck and a bit of skill by Kenyan policy-makers in adapting to the uncertain global economic policy environment that will undoubtedly emerge in the next two decades. Fiscal policy will need to be finely balanced if Kenya is to achieve the Vision 2030 objectives.It must facilitate rapid growth—both through the provision of needed infrastructure and human capital—while still being responsive both to the demands of the population for basic public services and the potential downside risks that may emerge. Yet fiscal policy must also be sustainable. Fiscal space will be precious if the various expen diture objectives are to be met without compromising macroeconomic stability or raising doubts about Kenya’s solvency. If growth proves less than anticipated—as occurred in 2008 and as expected in 2009—the needed fiscal space may prove inadequate to finance the required government outlays.Under these circumstances, unrestrained recourse to additional borrowing could jeopardize Kenya’s solvency and crowd-out its private sector. a. Domestic policy challenges to which fiscal policy should respond There are several important obstacles that could impede Kenya’s progress toward achieving the high growth rate targeted through 2030. First, after years of neglect, Kenya has only recently begun to address the inadequacy of its infrastructure for the realization of a modern, 21st century economy.Deficiencies exist in terms of Kenya’s port facilities, its trunk and secondary roads, its railroad system, its energy plant, and in the availability of clean water and sanitation facilities. While telecommunications has been the bright light of the last several years, there is still much to be done to make the system fully accessible and the proposed undersea fiber-optic cable, The East Africa Marine System, should help in this regard. Vision 2030’s emphasis on rebuilding and creating a productive infrastructure is rightly supported by international observers (e. . , in the IMF’s 2009 staff report) and appears responsive to this challenge. [2] But creating this infrastructure will be costly and could easily outstrip the domestic financial capacity of the government if it were to go it alone, justifying the government’s interest in seeking public-private partnerships as well as external financial support. Second, while Kenya is blessed with relatively a high quality and deep base of human capital, it has yet to find ways to deploy it more efficiently.Among African countries, Kenya has always been known for the high as pirations of its population for education and the drive of its citizens for self-betterment. But the productivity of Kenya’s educational system has long been a source of concern, and the continuing weaknesses in the health system have meant that infant and mortality rates are still too high, that malaria still poses a heavy health burden, and that the AIDS epidemic has cost Kenya significant losses among its most productive citizens. 3] The success of many Asian countries in realizing high growth rates when they were at Kenya’s stage in the demographic transition derived from their ability to productively employ the rising share of the working-age population. Strengthening the quality and exploiting the productive use of Kenya’s human capital, particularly looking forward, must thus be a high policy priority. Third, governance concerns remain an obstacle to Kenya fully exploiting its growth potential through foreign investment inflows.While the World Bankâ€℠¢s â€Å"Doing Business Indicators† suggest some improvements in creating the conditions for a receptive foreign investment climate (with Kenya ranking among the world’s top ten reformers in 2006/07), Kenya still ranks only 82nd on this index out of 181 countries, and ranks 147 out of 180 countries in terms of Transparency International’s index of perceptions of corruption for 2008. [4] Prioritizing and effectively carrying out the necessary institutional reforms, while not requiring substantial fiscal resources, may still prove costly and difficult in political economy terms.More important, it may play a critical role in determining whether Kenya can meet its ambitious investment goals in infrastructure, given that they are to be primarily financed from private sources through public-private partnerships. Fourth, to achieve its target growth, Kenya will not only need to raise significantly its pace of investment (from an average of 19% of GDP in 2005/06 to 2007 /08 to over 30% by 2012/13), but also to maintain the relatively low incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) of about 3 that it has experienced over the last few years.The latter may prove difficult. Among low and low-middle income countries, an ICOR of about 4 seems the norm (see World Bank, 2009). For the few non-oil-based countries in the world that have experienced growth rates as high as 10% for a sustained period, investment rates have been in the range of 40% of GDP plus (e. g. , China), reflecting a loss of efficiency in capital investment (and thus a higher ICOR). For Kenya to realize more efficiency from its investments, it must demonstrate a concomitant capacity to mobilize human capital resources effectively (e. . , rectifying both the under- and overstaffing of different public service activities), efficiency in the utilization of capital inputs, adequate attention to routine and periodic maintenance of existing infrastructure and a focus on investments that are of part icularly high return (the latter influencing the appropriate structure of Kenya’s public and private investment programme). Linked to these issues is the low absorptive and implementation capacity in the key infrastructure line ministries, particularly for foreign-financed projects.A key challenge that will determine whether the desired change in the composition of expenditure materializes will be the actual implementation rate of the development budget. In the past, actual expenditures have fallen well short of budget estimates, and in particular, absorption of donor development assistance has been very low—usually below 50 percent of budgeted amounts. Increasing the implementation capacity of the infrastructure ministries, and especially that of the Ministry of Roads and Public Works, will, therefore be critical.Fifth, generating the required financing for a higher level of investment will be a further challenge. A sound fiscal policy will constrain how much can dire ctly be provided from the budget, leading to the acknowledged need to rely on the private sector, domestic and external, for the remaining financing. The modalities by which Kenya provides incentives and deals with the risks associated with public-private partnerships, and improves governance, will determine the extent of foreign capital participation in Kenya’s investment programme.Six, despite the progress made in reducing poverty incidence from 57% in 2002 to 46% in 2006 (MTBSP, paragraph. 14), Kenya still faces high income and asset inequality as well as significant regional inequality in incomes and assets. While rapid growth over the next two decades would do much to reduce absolute poverty levels, the number of absolute poor will still remain substantial. Together with continued high inequality, this would constitute a significant drag, in political economy terms, on Kenya’s ability to obtain popular support for an ambitious resource mobilization and savings eff ort.Certainly, unless addressed, income inequality will constrain growth in the country, dampen the scope for poverty reduction and create an environment for social and political unrest. Seventh, and linked to the latter point, current fiscal decentralization efforts to address regional inequality through the use of a devolved funds mechanism are subject to potential vulnerabilities. In principle, through community-based projects, such an approach can have a positive impact on grass roots[5] support.However, slippages in governance and accountability, efficiency, or effectiveness in the use of devolved funds could undermine their potential impact, with political pressures engendering spending programs that would not normally meet benefit-cost criteria or address the existing regional maldistribution of resources. In the medium term, three potential threats to the effectiveness of a devolved funds approach require attention.First, is the poverty-weighted allocation criteria, which ef fectively incentivises constituencies to be ranked poor in order to qualify for a higher share of the devolved resources. Second, the provision of such ‘free’ budgetary resources may dampen revenue generation efforts at the local level. Third, the disconnect between community-based projects and the provision for operations and maintenance within the central budget can limit efficiency and effectiveness in the use of these funds[6].All of the above factors might be considered as relevant in formulating current budgetary policies. But Kenya also confronts other future developments that can easily undermine the long-term capacity of the economy to sustain rapid growth. These include: †¢ The rapid rate of urbanization: By 2025, Nairobi and Mombasa will have to invest in urban infrastructure (e. g. , housing, water, sewage, transport, schools and health facilities) to accommodate a virtual doubling of their populations. 7] The size of other urban centers will more than double by 2025 (from 3. 8 million to 9. 3 million). [8] Overall, the urban population is projected to triple to 21-22 million. Such urban infrastructure investments are likely to be of a lower overall productivity (thus implying a higher ICOR), further constraining the prospects for achieving the high efficiency level required to realize a 10% annual growth rate. †¢ The continued high overall population growth rate: Kenya’s fertility rate of 5 is high.The population aged 5-14—the prospective primary and secondary school-age groups—is anticipated to rise during 2005-2030 by at least 60 percent (more than 5. 2 million children). This highlights both the prospective increase that will be needed in spending on Kenya’s primary and secondary school system and the substantial expansion that is likely to be needed for tertiary education facilities. The latter will be particularly costly, and will put enormous pressure on the education budget (with one tertia ry student costing the equivalent of 40 primary students).Without policies that will encourage a reduced fertility rate, Kenya’s capacity to create fiscal space by shifting the composition of government expenditure towards growth-enhancing investments will be severely limited. †¢ The pressures for job creation arising from population growth: In the next 6 years, Kenya’s education system will produce at least 14 million new school leavers seeking jobs. While the public sector cannot be responsible for their employment, government expenditure policies will need to be sensitive to the job creation possibilities associated with the realization of the government’s expenditure program.This burgeoning employment challenge also highlights the importance associated with a successful transition to a high growth policy framework, since this will be the key to meeting the continuing pressure for job creation over the medium- to long-term. †¢ Cost pressures in the public sector: as with most middle-income and industrial economies, rapid productive growth in the economy typically will outpace productivity growth in the government sector.As wages in the public sector respond to market wage developments in the private sector, this will create cost-push pressures on public service delivery (particularly in the social sectors) (the so-called â€Å"Baumol effect†), pushing up the recurrent cost budget and generating further need for a higher revenue share. †¢ The looming costs of climate change: Recent World Bank reports suggest that Kenya is among the countries most at risk from an increased frequency and intensity of drought conditions.Addressing the potential deleterious effects on agricultural productivity will require a combination of intensified investment in water-control systems that promote enhanced efficiency in the use of water resources; a further shift in the role of nonagricultural outputs (and thus a capacity to become co mpetitive in earning the foreign exchange required for a higher level of food imports); and new R&D efforts at promoting agricultural techniques robust to drought and uncertain precipitation conditions.Given the importance of Mombasa as Kenya’s principal port, the probability of a sea level rise raises the question of when it will become necessary for Kenya to undertake the investments required to cope with the potential longer-term damages to Mombasa and what alternative approaches might be needed to ensure a continued viable port capacity. Less of a challenge and more of an opportunity is the possibility that Kenya might be able to exploit its comparative advantage with respect to solar and geo-thermal energy generation, and earn additional export and fiscal revenues from selling carbon credits to other high-emission countries. The budgetary risks associated with recognized contingent liabilities: the most obvious include those associated with the pay-as-you-go budgetary fu nding of civil service pensions; the potential for the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) to be relatively unfunded; and the possibility of losses associated with the parastatal sector. The anticipated effort by the Government to seek public-private partnerships in a number of infrastructure projects carries with it the potential for additional contingent liabilities. b. External policy challengesKenya’s ability to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives is not wholly subject to its own making. The global financial crisis which commenced in 2008 has adversely impacted Kenya, and highlighted the importance of external factors in influencing the growth of an economy. Kenya is vitally integrated within the global economy, being dependent on external commodity markets for its exports and critical energy imports, sensitive to the state of global tourism markets, significantly reliant on remittances, a recipient of aid flows, and ambitious in its pursuit of both direct foreign investm ent flows and possible external credits.In geopolitical terms, it has already experienced terrorist incidents and is a vital transport hub for many important countries in Central Africa. But of course the future is uncertain, particularly if one is considering policy options looking out more than 20 years. There is, thus, an important argument for seeking a policy program that is robust to potential downside risks and the possibility of very different external environments. One approach to exploring the robustness of the Vision 2030 fiscal strategy is to examine its viability in the context of alternative scenarios of the future.In 2005, the World Bank undertook just such an exercise to consider alternative scenarios for how the global economy might evolve through 2020. Each of the three scenarios elaborated were meant to constitute â€Å"relevant, compelling, plausible, and logically consistent†, but, importantly, divergent stories of what the global economy might look like in 2020. As emphasized by the Bank, â€Å"no single scenario will ever come true in its entirety, but if it is to be a valuable stone against which to sharpen one’s strategy, one must believe it just might! Box 3 provides a brief summary of these three different worlds, and section IV will examine more concretely the robustness of Vision 2030 in the context of these scenarios. At this point, what is important to emphasize are the key external policy factors to which the success of Vision 2030 might prove sensitive, and the way in which these scenarios highlight potential issues to which Kenyan policy makers might need to be responsive. Among the key factors that could affect Kenya’s prospects, the following appear most relevant: Robustness of global growth: Kenya’s capacity for mobilizing the fiscal resources required to implement its public investment program (and equally the prospect for the private sector to also achieve the targeted growth in its investment share) will be strongly influenced by the pace and structure of global growth. Given its dependence on external commodity and tourism services, a slower global growth scenario (such as in the GU scenario) would probably be reflected in slower Kenyan growth, lower fiscal revenues, and the need for a smaller budgetary envelope.How would the budget be prioritized in such circumstances? Would the same infrastructure and human capital investment priorities be relevant under a lower global growth scenario? Certainly, with the pace of population and urban growth (not to mention climate change) not affected by external factors, the pressure would be to cutback on precisely those investments most likely to generate additional growth and employment!Moreover, if global growth were to be dominated by a higher share derived from emerging markets, would this adversely affect Kenya (perhaps through reduced tourism from industrial countries)? Would reduced dynamism in the US and European economies imply a lower level of concessional financing, or would Kenya be able to obtain such assistance from alternative sources (e. g. , China and India)? With changes in the pace or sources of global growth, would Kenya still be able to realize the currently anticipated level of direct foreign investment flows?Would these derive from different sources and if so, would they be directed to the same sectors? |Box 1: Alternative Scenarios for the World of 2020 | | | |The following provides a brief summary of how these different worlds will appear, with our focus principally on the character of | |the alternative potential external economic environments facing Kenya. | | |Affluence, Ltd. (AL) | |Years of rapid, US-centered, economic growth will nearly double world GDP, an annual increase of more than 4 percent. States have | |shifted their focus from guaranteeing outcomes to providing opportunities.Rapid innovation and new technologies enable continuous | |improvements in productivity, whic h global corporations spread around the world as they expand. But economic success is not | |universal. Forty less competitive countries have been left behind due to geographic isolation, poor governance, small market size, | |or lack of strategic relevance. For most major economies, however, the United States has guaranteed political stability and open | |trade-conditions that have encouraged the creation of massive amounts of wealth. |Globalization Unwinding (GU) | |Through 2020, economic growth has been slow worldwide, averaging less than 2 percent for more than a decade. Weaker states have | |collapsed, as economic pressure translates into domestic unrest, while other states have resorted to authoritarianism or populism | |in order to stay in power. Costs of military interventions, energy price volatility, and years of deficits brought a sharp | |contraction in the US economy, and the consequent dollar crisis triggered a global economic downturn.Europe and Japan lacked the | |dy namism to lead the world out of recession, while the growth engines of China, India, Korea, and other â€Å"emerging economies† all | |sputtered-as did those of Russia and Latin America. Most developing countries have proven unable to mitigate the worst effects of | |the downturn. A deep-seated cynicism about the value of free markets prevails in the world, and economic decisions are generally | |focused on short-term returns. Protectionism grew rapidly following the downturn, and the path to recovery looks difficult. | | |Competing Horizons (CH) | | | |Large emerging markets of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and much of Southeast Asia have sustained rapid long-term | |growth—particularly in comparison to older industrialized economies—and a second wave of developing countries has joined their | |ranks. The developing world accounted for almost two-thirds of global GDP growth between 2005 and 2020.Regional economic powers | |have started to contest US primacy in their regions, and in global forums. Poles of cutting-edge R&D have emerged, with growing | |numbers of firms from these high-growth countries rivaling the multinational companies from the United States, Europe, and Japan. | |Many other developing countries have grown rapidly following improved policies and governance and benefiting from rising volumes of| |global trade. However, rising tensions between Old World and New World powers seem inevitable in the medium term.Despite strong | |networks of trade and continued rising demand for raw materials and basic commodities, growth in parts of the developing | |world—particularly in parts of Africa—remains low. In addition, the environmental costs of broad-based growth are significant: | |accelerating environmental degradation and severe resource constraints for water, strategic minerals, and energy are the order of | |the day. | | | |* Source: World Bank, Rehearsing for the Future: the World and Development in 2020 (Wa shington DC, 2006) (www. worldbank. rg/2020) | †¢ Scale of security threats: the alternative scenarios highlight the potential for different degrees of ethnic, terrorist and regional security tensions. Kenya may thus need to be prepared for the possibility of a higher level of security-related military outlays than presently envisaged under Vision 2030. Depending on the extent of external financial support to deal with terrorism and regional security threats, this may prevent the realization of the current strategy to shift funding away from such â€Å"other sectors† for the purpose of creating fiscal space for social or growth-oriented outlays. Nature of the trade environment: the extent to which further global trade barriers are reduced, or rather shifted towards bilateral or regional trading arrangements, may potentially influence the pace of growth and potentially the sources of Kenya’s principal comparative advantage, again influencing both the prospects for revenue mobilization and the focus of the investment programme. †¢ Importance of governance concerns: Were there to be a shift in the global economic center more towards emerging market countries, there might be a reduced incentive for Kenya to focus as much on governance issues.However, given the possibility of the AL scenario also arising, and given the merits on political economy grounds for strengthening Kenya’s governance and regulatory system (particularly given the increased role envisaged for PPPs), current strategies would appear robust to the alternative possible scenarios. †¢ Pace of technological change: Alternative scenarios also suggest differences in the future pace of technological change. This could be important, particularly with respect to certain kinds of infrastructure (e. g. , in the energy and possibly the ICT sectors).Would the nature of infrastructure investment decisions be influenced by the possibility that newer and more advanced technolo gies might make existing infrastructure or technologies inappropriate? All of these uncertainties raise the question of whether fiscal policy, to be robust under alternative scenarios, should be more conservatively managed, particularly with respect to the level of nonconcessional borrowing that would be appropriate in financing the investment program (or more pointedly, in the level of any fiscal debt anchor that might be considered in managing fiscal policy).They also raise questions as to the core investment programme which would appear appropriate, given the uncertainty as to which scenario might eventuate. III. Kenya’s fiscal strategy underpinning the Vision 2030 A. Background and macroeconomic assumptions Under the Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) covering the period 2003-07, Kenya made significant progress in macroeconomic management and in implementing key structural and governance reforms. As a result, the economy staged a remarkable broad-based recovery as growth of real GDP accelerated from 0. 5 percent in 2002 to 7. percent in 2007. In the aftermath of the post-election-violence (PEV) in early 2008 and the global economic slowdown, growth fell sharply in 2008 to 1. 7 percent. In 2009, the economy is projected to rebound only slightly to 2. 5 percent . Underpinning the good economic performance of recent years was the implementation of sound macroeconomic policies, and in particular, through 2007, the pursuit of a prudent fiscal stance in which the overall budget deficit (on a commitment basis, including grants) was contained to an average of about 2 per cent of GDP compared with a target of 3. percent in the ERS. As a result, there was a net domestic repayment of 0. 7 percent of GDP in 2007/08, relative to a net borrowing of 3. 6 percent of GDP in 2002/03, thereby contributing to a decline in the ratio of net domestic debt to GDP from 23 per cent in 2002/03 to roughly 17 per cent in June 2008. This facilitated a reduction in interest rates a nd an expansion of credit to the private sector in support of productive activities.With the conclusion of the ERS at end-2007, the Kenyan Government elaborated a medium-term development plan, the National Vision 2030, aimed at achieving rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. The vision had three pillars: †¢ an economic pillar whose goal was to achieve and then sustain annual real GDP growth of 10 percent by 2012 with a view to making Kenya a middle-income country by the year 2030; †¢ a social pillar aimed at creating a cohesive society enjoying equitable social development.This pillar would address inequality and poverty challenges faced by many Kenyans and move Kenya towards achieving some of the Millennium Development Goals; and †¢ a political pillar calling for an issues-based, accountable and democratic political system. Achieving the Vision 2030 growth target would require Kenya to increase its investment share in GDP from about 22 percent in 2007/08 to 33 percent by 2012/13. Over the same period, domestic savings would need to increase from about 16 percent of GDP to 28 percent. Details of the key indicators underpinning the macroeconomic framework are provided in Table 1. Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning Vision-2030 and the Medium-Term Plan | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 |2012/13 | | | |Medium-term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | |6. 2 |8. 3 |9. |9. 7 |10. 0 | |Real GDP |5. 7 |7. 5 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 | |CPI (end of period) |28. 5 | | | | | | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings | | | | | | | |Investment |21. |21. 9 |23. 3 |27. 3 |29. 9 |32. 6 | |o/w Central Government |8. 2 |8. 6 |8. 4 |8. 6 |9. 0 |9. 5 | |Gross domestic savings |15. 9 |15. 1 |17. 4 |21. 8 |24. 6 |27. 5 | |o/w Central Government |0. 4 |1. 6 |2. 7 |2. 9 |3. 2 |3. | |Central government budget | | | | | | | |Total revenue |21. 3 |21. 6 |21. 8 |21. 8 |21. 9 |22. 0 | |Total e xpenditure and net lending | | | | | | | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |29. 4 |28. 6 |27. 6 |27. 6 |27. 8 |28. | |Domestic debt, net (eop) | | | | | | | |Total Public Sector Debt |-6. 2 |-5. 6 |-4. 2 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 | | |17. 8 |16. 8 |16. 5 |15. 7 |15. 0 |14. 3 | | |41. 6 |43. 0 |40. 2 |41. 3 |38. 0 |38. | |External sector | | | | | | | |Current account (incl. official transfers) | | | | | | | |Reserves (months of import cover) |-6. 0 |-6. 8 |-5. 9 |-5. 5 |-5. 3 |-5. 1 | | | | | | | | | | |3. |3. 5 |3. 7 |3. 9 |4. 2 |4. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2008/09-2010/11. The fiscal framework underpinning the Vision 2030 scenario called for increased spending on the critical â€Å"flagship† projects, while at the same time ensuring that the overall fiscal deficit (after grants) would progressively narrow from 6. 2 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to a sustainable level of around 4 percent of GDP over the medium term. This would allow net domest ic debt to decline substantially from 17. 8 percent of GDP to 14. 3 percent by 2012/13.The strengthened fiscal position would be supported by the implementation of revenue administration measures by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), which would sustain the revenue-to-GDP ratio at around 22 percent throughout the medium-term. Under Vision 2030, public expenditure was to be restructured in favor of development spending and other priority social interventions. Improved management of public sector finances was expected to lead to a positive shift in investor and creditor confidence as well as to boost growth by providing the fiscal resources to raise public development spending from 8. percent of GDP in 2007/08 to 9 ? percent of GDP by 2012/13. B. The Medium-Term Plan, 2008-2012 (MTP)[9] To understand how the Kenya government envisaged the role of fiscal policy in its broad vision for development in the coming two decades, it is useful to begin with the first five-year development stra tegy, the Medium-Term Plan (MTP), issued in 2008 and intended to be the instrument for implementing the Vision 2030 development strategy. Two important elements underpin the MTP. First, the MTP clarified how overall resources in the economy would be allocated among the three pillars and the enabling sectors (i. . the Foundations for National Transformation) during the course of the first five-years of the Vision 2030 (see Annex Figure 1 and Annex Table 1). In particular, it highlighted the overwhelming importance that would be played by investments in infrastructure projects, particularly beginning in 2010/11. [10] While in 2008/09 and 2009/10, 21 percent of the resources was to be on infrastructure,[11] this share was to rise in the three subsequent years to about 60 percent with a heavy emphasis on roads (reflecting the inadequate maintenance and limited construction on new roads during the 1990s and earlier).The MTP also indicated that (with the exception of a short burst in 2009 /10), the social sector would absorb about 20 percent of available resources. Spending on the economic sector pillar was to drop sharply after 2008/09 (being replaced by infrastructure spending), but would then be held roughly constant for the remaining four years of the MTP period (see Annex Table 1). [12] Second, given the limited resources available to Government, the MTP emphasized that the financing of infrastructure should rely heavily on the private sector through the use of public-private-partnership (PPP) financing initiatives.For the five-year period, at least 80 percent of infrastructure spending should expect to be financed through PPPs, particularly starting in 2010/11. Thus, the success of infrastructure financing would be predicated on two important fundamentals: first, that domestic savings could be increased from about 16 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to reach 28 percent of GDP in 2012/13 and second, that a legal and regulatory framework for public-private-partnerships could quickly be put in place so investors would feel comfortable about investing in this strategy.Regarding the latter, we note that a PPP framework has been developed but has yet to be made operational. C. Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011//12 (MTBSP) Each year, the MTBSP provides much more detail on the government’s fiscal framework over the next three budget years, not only in terms of the allocation and financing of the budget for the different government ministries, but more importantly with regard to the key policy objectives. The most recent MTBSP was issued in June 2009 at the time of the BudgetSpeech for fiscal year 2009/10. Unlike the MTP, the MTBSP is guided by the need to be prudent on growth prospects to mitigate the risk of being overly optimistic, and in the event that higher than expected growth rates are achieved, the medium-term macroeconomic framework can be modified accordingly, with the higher revenues allocated to priority expenditures. Ta ble 2 below summarizes the main macroeconomic indicators underpinning the more cautious fiscal framework in the 2009 MTBSP.The table reveals the striking contrast between what had been assumed in the Medium-Term Plan for the next few years and the new assumptions dictated by recent domestic and external developments. Reflecting the domestic and external shocks of 2008 and 2009—the violence following the December 2007 election and the global economic slowdown—real GDP growth over the next three years is now projected to average under 5 percent, much lower than the 6. 8 percent projected in the 2008 MTBSP and half the 10 percent targeted under Vision 2030. | |Table 2: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning the MTBSP, | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | | | |Prel. Est. | | | | | | |Medium term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | | | | | | |Real GDP |4. 0 |2. 5 |3. 1 |5. 2 |6. 4 | |CPI (end of period) |29. |18. 0 |10. 1 |5. 9 |5. 0 | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings |19. 1 |18. 1 |19. 2 | | | |Investment |8. 2 |7. 6 |10. 2 |22. 1 |23. 3 | |o/w Central Government |13. 5 |11. 9 |14. 1 |8. 9 |9. 1 | |Gross national savings |1. |1. 7 |2. 3 |17. 3 |19. 0 | |o/w Central Government | | | |3. 1 |3. 5 | |Central government budget | | | | | | |Total revenue |22. 0 |22. 6 |22. 3 |22. 5 |22. 6 | |Total expenditure and net lending |27. 2 |28. 5 |30. 3 |28. |28. 3 | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |-3. 5 |-4. 9 |-6. 6 |-4. 5 |-4. 2 | |Domestic debt, net (eop) |16. 9 |18. 5 |20. 6 |21. 1 |21. 1 | |Total Public Sector Debt |39. 3 |42. 6 |44. 5 |44. 3 |43. 8 | |External sector | | | | | | |Current account incl. off. ransfers |-5. 6 |-6. 2 |-5. 1 |-4. 8 |-4. 3 | |Reserves (months of import cover) |3. 4 |2. 8 |2. 9 |3. 1 |3. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; and the MTBSP, 2009/10-2011/12 With respect to the saving-investment balance, there is also a significant divergence between the MTP? s mediu m-term targets and the revised targets in the 2009 MTBSP. For example, the saving-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 19 percent compared with 24. 6 percent in the MTP in 2011/12—a shortfall of 5. percentage points of GDP. Similarly, the investment-to-GDP ratio is now projected to reach only 23. 3 percent in 2011/12 compared with 29. 9 percent in the MTP—a shortfall of 6. 6 percentage points of GDP. Virtually all the projected shortfall in both saving and investment are associated with the private sector as public sector saving and capital spending are broadly as envisaged in the MTP. The large projected shortfalls in private sector saving and investment suggests that the Vision 2030 growth objectives are unlikely to be met within the timeframe originally envisaged of 2012/13.Moreover, unless the level of productivity rises sharply (or the ICOR is reduced markedly compared with the target in the MTP) in the next few years, achieving the growth objectives of the Vision 2 030 with lower investment is unlikely to be realized. Therefore, to avoid a prolonged divergence between actual outcomes and the Vision 2030 objectives, it is critical for Kenya to fast track the implementation of key reforms aimed at rapidly improving the investment climate, while putting in place the institutional framework to facilitate private sector participation in infrastructure projects through the PPPs.Without these reforms, the timeline for achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives will not only be delayed substantially but could be seriously compromised. As in the previous year, the 2009 MTBSP also aims at maintaining revenue collection at around 22 percent of GDP over the medium term. This is quite reasonable by historical Kenyan standards and high by Sub-Saharan African standards, and reflects an assumption that revenue collection will keep up with growth in nominal GDP.No major tax rate increases are envisaged in line with Kenya’s intention to maintain a compe titive climate for foreign and domestic investors by reducing the cost of doing business. Avoiding higher taxes seems, at this time, to be a reasonable policy position, though the issue of a further increase in the overall tax share will become more important to consider as one moves further into the next decade (as discussed below). The MTBSP rightly takes a cautious view on the availability of grants and concessional loans, which are projected at roughly 3. 5 percent of GDP annually through 2011/12.However, even for this amount of financing to become available, the MTBSP recognizes that improving public expenditure and financial management will be critical in order to give comfort to development partners that their resources are being efficiently used to support economic growth and poverty reduction. The decision to exclude budget support in formulating the medium-term framework is informed by the recent success of having more predictability in budget execution by ensuring that re sources allocated to line ministries are not disrupted by the ups-and-downs of donor relations and conditionalities.This practice has been highlighted positively by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. However, as the 2008 MTBSP emphasized, the exclusion of budgetary support should not suggest a slowdown in implementing reforms in public expenditure management, in the financial sector, and in the restructuring and/or privatizing of public enterprises. Indeed, the assumed lower donor inflows should be accompanied by an intensification of the pace of structural reforms, especially in the modernization of tax and customs administration, to ensure Kenya’s recent financial independence is sustained in line with KRA’s motto of â€Å"Tulipe Ushuru–Tujitegemee. †On the expenditure side, the 2009 MTBSP proposes an increase in overall spending from 28. 5 percent of GDP in 2008/09 to 30. 3 percent followed by a gradual reduction thereafter to about 28 perce nt by 2011/12, while simultaneously effecting a slight shift in the composition of expenditure towards development projects. As a result, the share of recurrent outlays in total outlays will have declined from a high of 90 percent in 2002/03 to 80 percent in 2006/07 and to 67 percent by 2010/11. This is consistent with Vision 2030’s objective of increased funding for the flagship infrastructure projects while still maintaining macroeconomic stability.Reflecting the importance of the other pillars of Vision 2030, and in particular, the social pillar, the proposed expenditure profile in the 2009 MTBSP provides for spending on education and health to remain broadly unchanged at around 30 percent of total spending over the medium-term (Table 3). [13] This follows significant increases in resource allocation to both sectors in recent years. Nevertheless, it may still be necessary to provide more resources to both sectors (see below) and this will require careful prioritization of spending to create the fiscal space for the shift in budget priorities.In particular, spending on other parts of the budget (including public administration, defense, internal security, etc), which is currently projected to remain broadly stable at around 46 percent of total spending, may need to be rationalized in order to release resources for the social sectors. . |Table 3: Spending on the Social and Economic Sectors (in percent of total expenditure) 1/ | | |   |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | |Social Sectors |28. % |29. 3% |30. 4% |30. 6% |29. 6% | | Health | 6. 1% |5. 7% | 6. 8% |6. 0% |6. 0% | | Education |22. 0% |23. 6% |23. 6% |24. 7% |23. 7% | |Economic Sectors |†¦ |24. 8% | 22. 9% |23. 6% |24. 8% | | Productive, incl.Agriculture |†¦ |4. 3% |3. 5% |4. 3% |4. 4% | | Physical Infrastructure |†¦ |20. 5% |19. 5% |19. 3% |20. 4% | |Other |†¦ |45. 9% |46. 7% |46. 3% |45. 6% | |Total |†¦ |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 | / Source: The Medi um-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011/12 Based on the projected revenue and expenditure, the overall budget deficit (after grants) is estimated to initially rise from 4. 9 percent in 2008/09 to about 6 percent of GDP in 2009/10—reflecting the impact of the fiscal stimulus package—and then decline to 4. 2 percent by 2011/12. (see Table 2). It is anticipated that concessional financing, mainly from multilateral institutions, non-concessional borrowing through the issuance of sovereign bonds, and domestic borrowing will cover the deficits.The projected domestic borrowing (including issuance of domestic infrastructure bonds) would result in a gradual increase in the stock of outstanding net domestic debt from 17 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to about 21 percent in 2011/12. This increase, while necessary in the context of the economic slowdown and government policy response, carries with it the risk of potentially crowding out of the private sector. This could pose diffic ulties in allowing the private sector to play its role in financing economic activities consistent with achieving the higher growth path. D. Overall fiscal and debt sustainabilityThe projected medium-term fiscal deficits are broadly consistent with fiscal and debt sustainability. Throughout the period covered by the MTBSP, the ratio of public sector debt-to-GDP fluctuates within a narrow range of 40-44 percent of GDP, implying that the net present value of debt-to–GDP ratio is well below 35 percent. [14] It should be noted that the issuance of sovereign bonds to fund high-return infrastructure projects does carry some debt sustainability risks arising from the exchange rate, making it important that the projects be subjected to rigorous cost-effectiveness analysis.Also, some caution may be needed with regard to the timing of issuance of these bonds, given the increased borrowing spreads currently facing many developing countries, as well as the recent and potential further de preciation of the Kenya Shilling against the Euro and the US dollar. Regarding contingent liabilities, a significant amount has already been taken into account in the context of the financial restructuring of the National Bank of Kenya (over Ksh. 21 billion) and during the course of privatizing Kenya Telecom.However, owing to lack of data, not all potential contingent liabilities from the parastatal sector and from the pension scheme have been included in the debt sustainability analysis. Including such contingent liabilities would increase the official public debt and the risk of the overall public debt becoming unsustainable. Another potential source of contingent liabilities is the Government’s planned heavy reliance on public-private-partnerships to finance many of the infrastructure projects for Vision 2030. It will be critical to ensure that increased use of the PPP framework is well managed and minimizes potential contingent liabilities.Reliance on PPPs in some instanc es involves some assumption of the government ultimately, in the future, financing the purchase of the privately-built assets. Moreover, depending on the terms of an individual PPP, the government could bear a number of potential risks associated with each project (demand risk, financing risk, political risk, supply risk, legal risk, etc). The Government appears to be cognizant of this danger, and intends to establish a PPP unit in the Ministry of Finance to vet all new PPP funded projects.In the meantime, the Government should avoid any new PPP projects before the finalization of the PPP legal and regulatory framework. E. The Potential Role of PPPs Can and should Kenya realistically rely on PPP mechanisms? First, there are some areas of public infrastructural spending where potentially the private sector may be willing to invest and provide services without the need for a PPP (e. g. , as has already been demonstrated in the telecommunications sector). In other sectors, the challeng e is for the government to ensure that the same public policy factors that originally motivated public sector investment and provision, e. . , equity factors, natural monopoly conditions, or externalities, are taken into account in the way in which the private sector produces and delivers services. Here the government’s task is to ensure that a clear and well-designed regulatory structure is in place, particularly with regard to pricing policy. Second, private financing in the form of a PPP entails both opportunities and risks to a government, and management of these risks is essential if there is to be a genuine sharing of both the gains and the associated risks between the public and private sectors.What makes a PPP attractive to a government is the ability to harness the potential of the private sector to construct and operate a facility with greater efficiency than would be the case for the public sector, with such efficiency gains offsetting the presumably higher borrowi ng or equity costs associated with private as opposed to government borrowing. Such efficiency gains are particularly relevant when the private sector can bundle the construction and operating phases of a project, thus allowing for internalization of cost-reducing incentives (Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009).At the same time, by substituting the private sector for public provision, the government can also save scarce public funds and relieve strained budgets. But PPPs can also be used, inappropriately, to bypass spending controls and move public investments off budget and debt off the government’s balance sheet. This could leave governments bearing most of the risks involved and face large fiscal costs over the medium to long term.Experience in other countries suggests that to work effectively and for a PPP to be an appropriate approach, several key prerequisites should be satisfied: the quality of services should be contractible; there should be competition or incentive-base d regulation; as noted, there should be an appropriate distribution of risks; the institutional framework should be characterized by political commitment, good governance, clear supporting legislation (including with regard to pricing); and a transparent procedure for award of performance incentives and enforcement of sanctions throughout the concession period.Finally, a government needs to have a capacity, both in the finance and sector ministries, to effectively appraise and prioritize public infrastructure projects; design PPPs; evaluate affordability, value for money and risk transfer; correctly select those projects that are appropriate to undertake as PPPs; draft and scrutinize contracts, monitor, manage and regulate ongoing projects, and undertake periodic performance evaluations (see Sutherland et al, 2009; Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009; IMF, 2004; and Tchakarov, 2007).This underscores the importance of Kenya moving at a deliberate pace to put in place a strengthened manag ement capacity in the Ministry of Finance and given, past governance failures, caution to ensure that the government sector is not burdened with excessive risks that ought legitimately to be borne by the private sector. In terms of negotiating the distribution of risk, the experience of Latin American countries with PPPs suggests that some are appropriately borne by the private partner—those associated with the construction or the operation of the project in particular.Others, such as political and regulatory risk, clearly should be borne by the government. Others—such as market demand risk, some supply side risks (the cost of foreign exchange, some factor cost risks), may be influenced by government but not fully under its control. How such risks are shared is an obviously important and sensitive aspect in the negotiation of a PPP with a private partner, since it will bear on how large are the contingent risks to which a government is exposed. Experience also has taug ht that governments entering into PPPs need to be aware, that there is a strong tendency for contracts to be renegotiated.Tchakarov (2007) notes that in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 30 percent of PPPs were renegotiated (particularly in transportation and water projects), often within the first two to three years of the award of a PPP. Key factors forcing renegotiation have included the fixed term nature of concession contracts, the challenges posed by demand risk, poor decisions at the design stage, government acceptance of aggressive bidding, or changes in the rules of the game by the government after the contract award.Tchakarov also notes that an â€Å"improper regulatory framework and poor regulatory oversight [can] increase the chances of conflict, rent capture by operators, or opportunistic behavior by government. † In sum, private sector financing offers important opportunities for Kenya to augment its fiscal space for infrastructure, but successful exploitati on of this source requires important capacity building within the government in order to ensure both fiscal savings and efficiency gains relative to public provision.F. Risks The MTBSP recognizes that the underlying medium-term assumptions are not without risks, and that the projected rate of economic growth may not be achieved. Under such circumstances, the MTBSP indicates that the government would take appropriate measures to mitigate the risks to macro-economic stability, such as by delaying or scaling back on expenditures on non-priority programs. However, the MTBSP does not identify which programs would be curtailed should revenues fall short of projection. IV.Assessing the Vision and the Medium-Term Budget Strategy ADoes Vision 2030 and the MTBSP Address the Key Challenges facing Kenya? In assessing Kenya’s fiscal policy going forward, it is probably best to work from the plans indicated in the recent MTBSP, primarily because Vision 2030 and the MTP provide less detail on the macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework. Vision 2030 is also of course more ambitious in its objectives for growth, so that any doubts raised about the MTBSP would only be more the case concerning Vision 2030.At the outset, it is worth pointing out that the fiscal framework in the MTBSP appears to be based on fairly conservative assumptions and has introduced some degree of flexibility that can accommodate several alternative scenarios. In particular, the assumed lower growth in the MTBSP compared with the Vision 2030 is, regrettably, realistic in light of recent global developments. However, the projected constant ratio of revenue-to-GDP ratio also comes at a time when KRA is undertaking significant reforms in the customs and tax administration.This means that there is likely to be a revenue windfall. The projected disbursement of concessional loans in line with GDP assumes no improvement in absorption capacity in the key line ministries from the low levels of between 40-5 0 percent and the authorities have underscored this as an objective to pursue in coming years. With the recent enhanced monitoring of project implementation, the absorption of donor funds should increase. The exclusion of donor budget support from the framework at a time when PFM/PEM reforms are on-going also suggests a potential upside in donor support.Finally even with the increase in government spending associated with the fiscal stimulus, the level of public sector debt to GDP ratio still provides some scope for additional domestic borrowing to fund key infrastructure projects, if warranted, without jeopardizing Kenya’s debt sustainability status. All in all, with the exception of the growth scenario, most of the other assumptions appear fairly cautious and leave room for some over performance. Thugge et al make several key observations on these issues.While acknowledging that the authorities have articulated a sensible and ambitious policy strategy, recent domestic polit ical events and the global economic downturn highlight the setbacks to its realization almost from the outset. Revenue shortfalls, limited efforts at rationalizing spending in noncritical sectors, and the slow pace of civil service rationalization will limit the potential for meeting policy objectives in the health and education sectors, both in terms of levels of spending and efforts at increased sectoral efficiency.The need for increased infrastructural spending is recognized, but financing efforts remain impeded by the lack of progress on setting out the policy framework for enhanced private sector participation and an improved investment climate. Enhanced revenue efforts will also be needed, particularly from personal and corporate income taxes and from an increase in the effective VAT rate. Fifth, the MTP calls for a sharp increase in overall investment in order to achieve the planned 10 percent real GDP growth.However, in light of the sharply lower medium-term levels of saving and investment now projected in the MTBSP, the government needs to move with deliberate speed to implement structural reforms and improve the investment climate in order to raise productivity rapidly. Without a significant increase in total factor productivity, achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives could be seriously impaired.One implication of the limited amount of resources available to G